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Book
Sequence ladder
Narrative Intelligence sources live outside the figurative image sequence ladder. Adaptive placement applies to image sequences, not this reading library.
What this book knows
Anything that matters can be measured; uncertainty is quantifiable, and small observations beat expert intuition every time.
mind-and-cognition
The reason intangibles seem intangible is almost never for lack of sophisticated methods; things reveal themselves to simpler observation once we see through the illusion of immeasurability.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-037No controversy in social science shows such a large body of diverse studies coming out so uniformly in the same direction: simple models beat expert judgment.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-063Very few experts measure their performance over time; anecdotes they remember tend to be more flattering, sustaining the illusion of learning.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-328education-and-formation
Whether calibration tests merely test trivia skill are testable hypotheses; observable consequences determine what we should see if those claims were true.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-125One particularly powerful tactic for becoming well calibrated is to pretend to bet money—it forces honest reckoning with your own uncertainty.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-113work-as-meaning
If an investment was considered strategic, it received funding. No attempt was made to quantify the value—a pattern this book sets out to end.
VLA-FC1E8D75-RC-376Illuminates
6 published passages · book excerpt · research analysis
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